Mid-Year Scorecard: Bitwise’s 2025 Predictions

At the year's halfway point, here's what we nailed, what we missed, and what’s too soon to call.

Last December, the Bitwise Research team gazed into the future and made 10 bold predictions for 2025. Among the forecasts: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana would hit new all-time highs, spot bitcoin ETFs would attract more flows in 2025 than 2024, and Coinbase and Strategy would enter the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100.

Predictions are relatively easy to make; the hard part is getting them right. Harder still is looking at the ones you got wrong.

And so, halfway through 2025, we’re checking in on our forecasts to see what we nailed, what we missed, and what’s too soon to call. So far, we’ve gotten two right, one wrong, and the other seven are still up in the air.

It should be an exciting H2.

Prediction 1: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana will hit new all-time highs, with Bitcoin trading above $200,000.

Update: Too Soon To Call

It’s been a mixed year for crypto asset prices. Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $112,000 in May thanks to strong ETF flows, growing demand from bitcoin treasury companies, and the creation of a U.S. strategic bitcoin reserve. But Ethereum and Solana are down year-to-date, and macro risks have kept the bull market from kicking into overdrive.

We’re optimistic, however, that things are setting up for a very strong H2. Progress in D.C. around crypto legislation, rising demand from institutional investors for crypto exposure, and extreme bullishness around stablecoins are combining to create a strong environment for gains.

The Bottom Line: We’re holding firm to our BTC $200k prediction, as there is simply too much institutional demand for BTC to keep prices flat for long. We’re less confident on ETH and SOL but hope that rising interest in stablecoins, ETF approvals, and the emergence of ETH and SOL treasury companies can drive prices substantially higher.

Prediction 2: Bitcoin ETFs will attract more flows in 2025 than they did in 2024.

Update: Too Soon To Call

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs brought in a combined $35 billion of inflows in 2024, shattering all previous records for a new asset class. So far, they’ve raked in about $13 billion. At this rate, we’d miss our target—but we foresee things accelerating significantly in H2. The biggest factor? Major wirehouses and wealth management platforms have recently approved access to bitcoin ETFs, opening up trillions of dollars of wealth to the BTC ETF market for the first time.

The Bottom Line: This feels like it’s going to happen. We’re very optimistic about ETF flows in H2.

Prediction 3: Coinbase will surpass Charles Schwab as the most valuable brokerage in the world, and its stock will top $700 per share.

Update: Looks Unlikely

Coinbase has had a spectacular year so far. In May, it became the first crypto company to enter the S&P 500. Revenue is up 24% year-over-year, with trading volume up even more. And COIN’s stock has done well, doubling Schwab’s market return (44% against 22% for the old-school brokerage).

Despite this momentum, Wall Street continues to overlook the quantity, quality, and potential upside of Coinbase’s business lines. And, to be honest, Schwab’s stock has done a bit better than we expected. As a result, the gap between Coinbase’s value ($90B) and Schwab’s value ($164B) is probably too wide to cross by year-end.

The Bottom Line: We’re still convinced this one’s going to happen. It just might take a little longer than we previously thought.

Prediction 4: 2025 will be the “Year of the Crypto IPO,” with at least five crypto unicorns going public in the U.S.

Update: Almost Guaranteed

We’ve already seen three crypto unicorns go public in the first half of 2025: Webull ($5 billion valuation), eToro ($5.5 billion), and Circle ($41 billion).¹ The party seems to be just getting started: Thanks in part to Circle’s blockbuster IPO, a growing list of companies have announced plans to follow in its footsteps into the public market, including Gemini, Kraken, BitGo, Tron, Consensys, and American Bitcoin.

The Bottom Line: This one feels like it is in the bag. In fact, five may have been too bearish.

(1) Market capitalizations as of June 30, 2025.

Prediction 5: Tokens launched by AI agents will spearhead a memecoin mania even bigger than in 2024.

Update: Highly Unlikely

Memecoins collapsed in Q1 2025, led by the spectacular blowout of the TRUMP and MELANIA coins and the scandalous implosion of Argentinian President Milei’s LIBRA coin. And while AI agents remain a fascinating and evolving space, they’ve taken a backseat in 2025.

The Bottom Line: We got this one wrong. You can’t win them all.

Prediction 6: The number of countries holding bitcoin will double, from 9 to 18.

Update: Looks Unlikely

Nine countries held bitcoin at the end of 2024. At the end of H1, we’ve seen clear progress toward our target of 18: The United Arab Emirates revealed a $400 million bitcoin stash in February, and Pakistan announced the creation of a bitcoin reserve in May. Noteworthy, too, was the launch of the U.S.’s crypto reserve—a move that surely caught the eye of other national treasuries worldwide.

But our growing sense is that, for strategic reasons, many countries are exploring or accumulating bitcoin outside the public eye. We suspect more nations will show their cards by year-end.

The Bottom Line: We’re not quite sure we’ll get to 18 this year, but it could be close.

Prediction 7: Coinbase will enter the S&P 500 and MicroStrategy will enter the Nasdaq-100, adding crypto exposure to (nearly) every U.S. investor’s portfolio.

Update: We Nailed It

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) entered the Nasdaq-100 at the end of 2024 (soon after we published our predictions) and Coinbase entered the S&P 500 in May. These moves almost certainly juiced demand for the companies’ shares from active and passive index funds—we estimated COIN’s inclusion would lead to at least $15 billion in purchases from these players. But perhaps more importantly, they symbolized crypto’s deeper entrenchment in the mainstream. As Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong put it, “Crypto’s here to stay.”

The Bottom Line: We got this one right.

Prediction 8: The U.S. Department of Labor will relax its guidance against crypto in 401(k) plans, enabling billions of dollars to flow into crypto assets.

Update: We Nailed It

In May, the U.S. Department of Labor rescinded its 2022 guidance that directed 401(k) plan fiduciaries to exercise “extreme care” before adding crypto investments to retirement menus. In the announcement, Secretary of Labor Lori Chavez-DeRemer said the agency is “rolling back this overreach and making it clear that investment decisions should be made by fiduciaries, not D.C. bureaucrats.” Translation: The pie just got a lot bigger.

The Bottom Line: We got this one right.

Prediction 9: Stablecoin assets will double to $400 billion as the U.S. passes long-awaited stablecoin legislation.

Update: Too Soon to Call

Stablecoin AUM currently stands at $260 billion, an increase of more than 30% since the start of the year. But we’ve still got a way to go to cross $400 billion. What could help: passage of the GENIUS Act, the comprehensive stablecoin bill that cleared the Senate by a 68-30 vote in June. Another big tailwind comes from traditional players like Mastercard—accepted by 150 million merchants worldwide—that are making big recent moves to incorporate stablecoins into their rails, and major banks from JPMorgan to Bank of America that are planning to launch stablecoins of their own.

The Bottom Line: This one is going to be close. We’re not sure we’ll get all the way to $400 billion by year-end, but assets will rise substantially.

Prediction 10: The value of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) will surpass $50 billion as Wall Street’s embrace of crypto intensifies.

Update: Looking Good

Tokenization news is everywhere this year. In May, New Jersey announced plans to tokenize almost 400,000 property deeds worth $240 billion on Avalanche. Dubai launched its first tokenized real estate platform on XRP. And Kraken is rolling out a platform that lets non-U.S. investors trade “tokenized equities” of Apple, Tesla, Nvidia and dozens of other popular stocks. 

Tokenized RWAs were a $13 billion market at the start of 2025. Today, they’re at roughly $25 billion. We think adoption here will accelerate in H2 and ultimately put us above the $50 billion mark.

The Bottom Line: We think this one will happen.

Risks and Important Information

No Advice on Investment; Risk of Loss: Prior to making any investment decision, each investor must undertake its own independent examination and investigation, including the merits and risks involved in an investment, and must base its investment decision—including a determination whether the investment would be a suitable investment for the investor—on such examination and investigation.

Crypto assets are digital representations of value that function as a medium of exchange, a unit of account, or a store of value, but they do not have legal tender status. Crypto assets are sometimes exchanged for U.S. dollars or other currencies around the world, but they are not currently backed nor supported by any government or central bank. Their value is completely derived by market forces of supply and demand, and they are more volatile than traditional currencies, stocks, or bonds.

Trading in crypto assets comes with significant risks, including volatile market price swings or flash crashes, market manipulation, and cybersecurity risks and risk of losing principal or all of your investment. In addition, crypto asset markets and exchanges are not regulated with the same controls or customer protections available in equity, option, futures, or foreign exchange investing.

Crypto asset trading requires knowledge of crypto asset markets. In attempting to profit through crypto asset trading, you must compete with traders worldwide. You should have appropriate knowledge and experience before engaging in substantial crypto asset trading. Crypto asset trading can lead to large and immediate financial losses. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position quickly at a reasonable price.

The opinions expressed represent an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and are not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results, and are subject to further discussion, completion and amendment. The information herein is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. You should consult your accounting, legal, tax or other advisors about the matters discussed herein.