More Than Ever, Bitcoin Is Trading Like Digital Gold

The bitcoin-gold correlation just hit its highest level since 2020—and it’s not a coincidence.

I’ve invited my colleague André Dragosch, PhD, to guest author the CIO Memo this week. André is the Director of Research for Bitwise in Europe. He brings deep macro expertise and strong quantitative skills to bear on analyzing the crypto market. I’ll be back in the next edition! – Matt

One of the biggest debates around bitcoin is whether it is really “digital gold.” Proponents of this thesis tend to make theoretical arguments, noting that, like gold, bitcoin is scarce, fungible, divisible, and can be held without relying on a third-party custodian.

Opponents tend to make a more practical argument: Bitcoin’s historical record doesn’t match gold’s. They call out bitcoin’s repeated 50–80% drawdowns and cry foul. They note that Bitcoin has not been around nearly as long as gold, and is not as widely accepted as a store of value.

But recently something important has taken place that may bridge this disagreement. It shows that when it really matters, bitcoin can indeed act like “digital gold.” And the time that it might really start to matter is right now.

The Bitcoin-Gold Correlation

August was a big month for macro. With yields on the 10- and 30-year Treasury rising, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent intervened in the market to increase purchases of long-dated bonds. The intervention suggested that we may be entering a new era of financial repression and yield curve control.

Following the intervention, Bitcoin experienced its biggest weekly gain since March 2024, rising +22.4%. But here’s what many investors missed: This time, both bitcoin and gold moved in lockstep.

Specifically, gold gained roughly +5% week-over-week, while stocks fell. Dig deeper and the statistics are quite telling: The three-month rolling correlation between bitcoin and gold increased to its highest level in nearly six years.

Correlation Between Bitcoin and Gold Increases to Near Six-Year High

Bitcoin’s Correlation to Gold (90-Day Rolling)

Bitwise Asset Management with data from Bloomberg. Data from April 13, 2015, to August 31, 2026. Gold is represented by the gold spot price.

Note: Correlation between -0.5 and 0.5 is traditionally defined as “low” or “no” correlation.

The last time the bitcoin-gold correlation was that high was in 2020, following the rounds of fiscal and monetary stimulus during the Covid crisis. In other words, the last two times the government materially intervened in the macro picture were the exact two times the gold-bitcoin correlation was the highest!

Meanwhile, the bitcoin-stock correlation has dropped to a one-year low, implying some kind of decoupling between hard assets and the stock market. The argument that bitcoin is “just a leveraged tech investment” may not be true after all.

Bitcoin's Correlation to U.S. Equities Has Declined From Its Highs

Bitcoin’s Correlation to the Nasdaq-100 (90-Day Rolling)

Source: Bitwise Asset Management with data from Bloomberg. Data from April 13, 2015, to August 31, 2026. Nasdaq-100 is represented by the Nasdaq-100 Total Return Index.

Note: Correlation between -0.5 and 0.5 is traditionally defined as “low” or “no” correlation.

Further, the correlation between bitcoin and the Dollar Index (DXY) is significantly negative, implying that headwinds for the dollar are tailwinds for bitcoin (and gold).

Bitcoin Remains Inversely Correlated With the U.S. Dollar

Bitcoin’s Correlation to the U.S. Dollar (90-Day Rolling)

Bitwise Asset Management with data from Bloomberg. Data from April 13, 2015, to August 31, 2026. U.S. Dollar is represented by the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).

Note: Correlation between -0.5 and 0.5 is traditionally defined as “low” or “no” correlation.

Bitcoin as Insurance Against Currency Debasement

The data tells us something important. First of all, bitcoin is not gold. Gold is an established asset that has been around for thousands of years. Bitcoin is a novel technology that was created less than 20 years ago. During moments in the market when macro is off the front page, bitcoin and gold can perform very differently.

But when things get serious and macro forces are strong, investors are discriminating less and less between bitcoin and gold as they navigate rising currency debasement risks. In those scenarios, bitcoin has recently started to look like an amplified version of gold.

Gold's roughly $30 trillion market was built by central banks, sovereigns, and allocators. That pool dwarfs the venture and crypto-native capital that has priced bitcoin for most of its life. If bitcoin is entering the first category, it will be repriced against a much bigger benchmark.

The message from the correlation data is unambiguous: Investors are no longer asking whether to hedge currency debasement with gold or bitcoin. They're simply hedging with both. Bitcoin spent its first fifteen years being priced as a risk asset. If this correlation trend with gold holds, the next fifteen may look very different.

Risks and Important Information

No Advice on Investment; Risk of Loss: Prior to making any investment decision, each investor must undertake its own independent examination and investigation, including the merits and risks involved in an investment, and must base its investment decision—including a determination whether the investment would be a suitable investment for the investor—on such examination and investigation.

Crypto assets are digital representations of value that function as a medium of exchange, a unit of account, or a store of value, but they do not have legal tender status. Crypto assets are sometimes exchanged for U.S. dollars or other currencies around the world, but they are not currently backed nor supported by any government or central bank. Their value is completely derived by market forces of supply and demand, and they are more volatile than traditional currencies, stocks, or bonds.

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The opinions expressed represent an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and are not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results, and are subject to further discussion, completion and amendment. The information herein is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. You should consult your accounting, legal, tax or other advisors about the matters discussed herein.